I have been reflecting on this big swing towards PAP in GE2015. There is one factor which stands out in my mind: giving PM Lee and PAP a massive mandate as a way of honouring his late father. I call it transferred gratitude.
This swing of 10% happened in spite of 1) cooperation amongst opposition parties to avoid 3-cornered fights, 2) opposition fielding quality candidates, 3) huge turnout at opposition rallies and 4) post 2011 momentum towards having more Opposition MPs in Parliament? Many have also spoken about the positive impact of SG50, LKY legacy, goodies, PAP making changes in response to GE2011, fear of opposition taking over at this stage and the impending worsening of the world economy.
The attempt to separate father (SG40; the first 40 years) and son (SG10; the last 10 years) to show their differences did not work either because it was not adequately publicised in the main stream media or it did not resonate well with voters. An overwhelming sense of transferred gratitude thus prevailed. Seeing PM Lee’s photograph all over the island aroused nostalgia and strong emotional feelings in the voters towards his late father who had passed away less than 6 months ago. Hence, the transferred gratitude: a vote for him was a vote for his father.
If transferred gratitude is indeed the main factor, then all other factors pale in comparison. Is there a need to analyse too deeply why opposition fared so badly in the presence of the emotionally-charged transferred gratitude which defies logic? That is why this nation-wide massive swing took everyone by surprise.
Given another 5 years, in GE2020, will people give PM Lee and PAP this advantage of transferred gratitude?
Source: Ang Yong Guan
