Tag: opposition

A Reality Check For All Opposition Parties

I might be flamed by fellow opposition supporters for saying this, but I feel it’s better if we opposition supporters voice out our concerns BEFORE the upcoming GE.

Firstly, not all opposition parties have the same status. The strongest opposition party at the moment is the WP which has 7 parliamentary seats and 2 non-constituency members of parliament. The WP is stable, has good leadership, party discipline, a strong brand name, strong grassroots network and has managed to attract a critical mass of skilled professionals. These factors explain why the WP has a better image and thus a better chance of winning than the other opposition parties. As was seen in the Punggol East by-election, in a multi-cornered fight, the WP candidate will attract a much larger share of votes than the minor opposition parties.

Next in the ranking of the opposition parties, is the SDP. Why? Because this is a party with a history, alternative policies and a clear ideology. SDP’s grassroots potential is underused but not lacking, as it seems to be able to attract social activists and other liberals. Say what you may about the SDP but at least it does not give the image that it is an unstable party that lacks people. The party website is well designed and is kept up to date. SDP’s decision to pull out of the Punggol by-election and avoid being a spoiler earned it goodwill from opposition supporters and thus the SDP’s image was not tarnished by a great defeat. The SDP may have committed some blunders such as implying that they were unwilling to run a town council, but they have corrected that mistake! They realized that they have to turn their attention to municipal matters too. And thus, earlier this year, they published a paper detailing their plans on running a town council. The SDP is not perfect, but if your constituency is not contested by WP, it’s your best bet if you want an opposition win.

Why did I not list the SPP which has 1 NCMP as the second pick for opposition supporters? Last GE, we saw a nationwide 6.5% vote swing AWAY from the PAP. Thus, every constituency that was also contested by the opposition in 2006 saw a larger percentage of the votes gained by the opposition in 2011. All constituencies save for one – Potong Pasir. SPP instead saw their votes in Potong Pasir drop by 6%, leading to their narrow loss of a safe seat to the PAP’s Sitoh Yi Pin!

This is largely due to the choice of SPP to field Lina Chiam who was intended to be Chiam See Tong’s successor. This is widely perceived to be the reason why SPP lost. Mrs Chiam was not eloquent enough at her rallies. Nor did she attack the PAP candidate sufficiently. Most importantly, she did not manage to convince the swing voters that she had a good chance of winning against the PAP candidate. That was why there were 242 spoiled votes. If just half these votes had gone to SPP, she would have won!

I’m not against SPP but I’m just saying that SPP has to deal with these REAL perceptions if they intend to field Mrs Chiam in Potong Pasir again. A party only stands a decent chance if it can generate hype among its supporters. Supporters and swing voters have to be convinced that the party can win. Remember, Sitoh Yi Pin has been the incumbent MP for Potong Pasir for 4 years now and he has a huge advantage over Mrs Chiam. It is no longer 50-50 as was the case in 2011. Even other opposition parties like the DPP are doubting Mrs Chiam’s ability to win again. That is why these opportunists want to cause a multi-cornered fight in Potong Pasir.

SPP can still win back Potong Pasir if they field someone younger, whose appeal to the voters is stronger. If they wish to revive Mr Chiam’s legacy while renewing SPP, then why not field Mr Chiam’s daughter? As Nicole Seah proved in the last GE, it is possible for a young, eloquent and inspiring female politician to generate sufficient hype to shift the vote towards her party, even against a strong incumbent from the ruling party.

SPP has been gifted with the entry of strong opposition personalities like Ravi Philemon and Jeanette Chong-Aruldoss, who is poised to give the PAP a tough fight at Mountbatten SMC once again. So why not build on that to renew the party’s overall image? I hope SPP can see the bigger picture and try to attract back swing voters.

All the other opposition parties are not main contenders. NSP received a lot of bad publicity after GE2011 because they went through a change of 5 secretary generals in such a short time and furthermore lost almost all their top candidates in the last GE to other political parties. Singfirst and PPP are new parties with no history and swing voters usually stick to established parties when they vote. RP and SDA have been discredited by their secretary generals losing their deposits in the Punggol by-election. These parties will be entering the upcoming GE with voters perceiving them to have a low chance of winning. They have a lot of hard work ahead of them. It will be an uphill task for them to win a seat in parliament.

Harold

Source: www.tremeritus.com

July 30, 2015
Walid J. Abdullah: Multi-Cornered Fight Is Good, Vote-Splitting Will be Rare

Some people have expressed their fears of multi-cornered fights in the upcoming GE (they are mostly either opposition supporters or people who want the PAP to be in government but wish to see more opposition voices in Parliament). I do not share their fears and have more faith in Singaporeans in this regard: not because i believe that all Singaporeans are politically astute in all aspects, but because there have been evidence to suggest that Singaporeans have learnt the potential effects of multi-cornered fights.

In the 2011 Presidential Election, Singaporeans were divided between three candidates: eventually, Dr Tony Tan won the election with the tiniest of margins. A substantial amount of people who voted for Tan Jee Say (25%) must have regretted their choice, as had they casted their votes for Dr Tan Cheng Bock (who would be the natural next option: one cannot imagine a person who voted for TJS preferring Tony Tan over TCB), TCB would have been the president.

Fast forward to 2013: Punggol East by-election. There were two things that did not receive sufficient attention in the aftermath of the sensational electoral outcome: 1) the disastrous performances of Desmond Lim and Kenneth Jeyaretnam (Desmond’s one is particularly important), and 2) SDP was completely ignored by WP when the former attempted to devise creative plans to mount a ‘unified’opposition to PAP.

In the 2011 GE, Desmond contested the Punggol East constituency against PAP and WP candidates. He received 4.45% of the votes. In 2013, he attained just 0.57% of the vote share. While both results were atrocious, the second one was particularly so. I argue that Singaporeans had learnt from the Presidential Elections that every vote truly mattered in a multi-cornered contest, and hence were less likely to waste their votes on candidates who had no serious chance of winning (in the first place, a significant portion of the 4.45% he received in 2011 could have been purely out of sympathy, and when the going gets tough, there really is less room for sympathy or other considerations). The fact that SDP withdrew very early on, suggests that its leaders probably believed this from the start too.

In Political Science literature, the above phenomenon is known as the ‘psychological effect’ in voting, and was made popular by Duverger. I believe we have seen the psychological effect occurring in Singapore, and that we will see more of it if there are more multi-cornered fights.

Hence, I contend that the following will be likely to happen:

In the constituencies that WP is contesting, the other opposition parties who decide to contest will not get their deposits back. In fact, I do not expect them to get more than 3% of the votes. This is regardless of which are the other parties.

In the constituencies that WP is not contesting but there are multi-cornered contests, it depends on which parties are contesting. If SDP and NSP contest, then maybe the votes would be significantly split: this is because both are parties of similar stature, and opposition supporters may be divided as to which would be the party that would get more votes.

In the constituencies that WP is not contesting, and only either SDP or NSP is contesting with the other smaller parties, one can expect the other parties to not get their deposits back.

So perhaps the opposition parties should take heed from lessons of the 2011 Presidential Elections and 2013 Punggol-East By-Election: be prepared to lose your money in the multi-cornered fights, because vote-splitting between the opposition parties will be rare.

In any case, Singaporeans should not be overly-worried about having more parties in electoral contests: such a situation is ultimately good in enhancing democracy.

Source: Walid J. Abdullah

July 29, 2015
Opposition Supporters Slam DPP For Attempting Multi-Cornered Fights

Prior to the 2011 Presidential Elections, the last multi-corner electoral fight occurred took place in 2001 in the then Bukit Timah SMC. A 3-way contest saw the PAP eventually securing 77% of the valid votes, while independent Tan Kim Chuang lost his deposit with a ‘mere’ 4.92% of the votes.

Given that such multi-cornered fights work to the advantage of the PAP due to the splitting of opposition votes, alternative political parties such as the NSP and SingFirst have called for unity to avoid such scenarios. Working out a common ground, however, seems to demand a different level of commitment.

Brinkmanship occurred in the 2013 Punggol East by-election where the SDP had publicly offered the WP a deal: the SDP would send its elected MP to parliament as an alternative voice while the WP would manage the town council. In the absence of a reply, the SDP stood down altogether.

The SDP thus deserves some credit to its name even though it may seem to have acted conceitedly. Had it pushed ahead with its proposition, the opposition votes may very well have been split into those who preferred a more radical alternative in the form of SDP and a more moderate alternative in the form of the WP.

Reassuringly, the voters gave their support to the WP by an astounding margin causing both the RP and SDA to lose their deposit. Taken together with the Presidential elections 2 years earlier, the electorate has shown a new found maturity when it came to 3-cornered contests: only want alternative parties who act reasonably will secure votes.

Yet, it would seem that multi-cornered fights seem to have inevitably emerged again in a hotly contested atmosphere of increased resentment towards the PAP. The DPP, for example, have stood up to contest in the Mountbatten, Hong Kah North, Potong Pasir, Bishan-Toa Payoh and Tanjong Pagar constituencies.

As a likely scenario emerged, even netizens from the core opposition group have been quick to condemn the actions of the DPP with one saying on TRE: “Guaranteed to lose terok terok if you enter into a 3-cornered fight. Don’t tiew Lian ok”

Another said: “fly-by-night parties that ‘wake’ up during GEs gunning for multi-cornered fights better understand their own strength before they jump. Opposition supporters will vote for only credible and viable candidates, not the more vocal or those with dubious track record.”

Despite an absence from the electoral scene, this is not the first time the DPP has done so. In 1997, a 4-cornered fight in Chua Chu Kang SMC saw DPP’s Tan Soo Phuan lost their deposit with a mere 1.9% of the valid votes. This set a new record for the lowest share of popular votes until 2013 where SDA had less than 1% of the votes.

Will 2015 prove to be Déjà vu?

Source: http://mythoughtsinafewparagraphs.net/

July 29, 2015
No Outright Opposition Claims For Four Out Of 29 Constituencies

Ahead of a meeting scheduled for Friday (Jul 30) in which Opposition hopefuls will seek to avoid three-corner fights, the Opposition parties have already declared they will contest 25 of the 29 constituencies laid out for the coming General Election.

Only four – Holland-Bukit Timah, Jurong and Sembawang GRCs as well as Bukit Panjang SMC – have not been laid claim to. Of the four, three were contested in the 2011 GE by the Singapore Democratic Party (SDP), while one saw the National Solidarity Party (NSP) take on the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP).

Dr Chee Soon Juan’s SDP last contested in Holland Bukit-Timah, Sembawang and Bukit Panjang in 2011. But so far, since the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee report was released on Friday (Jul 24), the SDP has only said that they are “considering contesting in the same areas as it did in the last election”.

In 2011, an SDP team which included future presidential candidate Tan Jee Say and civil activist Vincent Wijeysingha ran against Dr Vivian Balakrishnan’s PAP team in Holland-Bukit Timah GRC. The Opposition team garnered 39.92 per cent of the vote.

In Sembawang GRC, an SDP team led by academic James Gomez secured 36.1 per cent of the vote against Minister for National Development Khaw Boon Wan and his PAP team.

Film-maker Alec Tok was the SDP representative against the PAP’s Teo Ho Pin at Bukit Panjang SMC four years ago. He took a third (33.73 per cent) of the vote.

Similarly, the NSP have not yet laid claim to contesting Jurong’s five-member GRC, where it won 33.04 per cent of the vote in 2011 against a PAP team anchored by Deputy Prime Minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam.

On Tuesday, NSP Acting Secretary-General Hazel Poa told Channel NewsAsia that the party can only confirm that it is looking at areas it contested in 2011, but added that a clearer picture would emerge after a meeting this Friday the party has called between Opposition parties.

The Workers’ Party, the party which has the largest share of seats in Parliament after the ruling PAP, on Sunday declared its intention to field candidates in 10 constituencies – 5 GRCs, 5 SMCs – in the coming GE. This will see the WP contest a total of 28 out of the 89 available seats.

“I think we still want to try and avoid any three-corner fights if possible,” said WP chairman Sylvia Lim, confirming that her party will attend the Friday meeting.

Source: www.channelnewsasia.com

July 28, 2015
Analysts: Multi-Cornered Fights Unlikely

Although several opposition parties have staked their claims to the same constituencies, the political analysts TODAY spoke to said multi-cornered fights are likely to prevail only in constituencies the Workers’ Party (WP) does not gun for. Multi-cornered fights, they said, hold “grave consequences” for other opposition parties that do not have a branding as strong as the WP’s.

Singapore Management University law don, associate professor Eugene Tan, said the WP is in a “healthy bargaining position”, and unlikely to concede the places it staked a claim to.

“In a case where there is nothing much to differentiate between the two or more opposition parties, voters may not know where or on whom to pool their votes. And this is where we are likely to see votes being split,” he said.

WP secretary-general Low Thia Khiang on Sunday (Jul 26) announced his party’s intention to contest in Marine Parade GRC and MacPherson SMC — the former being a ward contested by the National Solidarity Party (NSP) in the 2011 polls and the latter, a part of it until electoral boundaries were redrawn last Friday.

The NSP has called for a meeting this Friday among opposition parties to hammer out deals and avoid multi-way fights.

MULTI-CORNERED FIGHTS MORE LIKELY IN WEST, CENTRAL PARTS

With the WP’s plans to expand eastwards, Assoc Prof Tan and former Nominated Member of Parliament Siew Kum Hong felt multi-cornered fights are more likely to happen in the western and central parts of Singapore. Said Mr Siew: “I think most other opposition parties will be hesitant to challenge the WP.”

Added political analyst Derek da Cunha: “The other opposition parties have yet to concretely demonstrate that they are on the same level as the WP in terms of voter appeal.”

The analysts also cited the Punggol East by-election in 2013 as an example of why opposition camps should avoid multi-cornered fights that involve the WP. Ms Lee Li Lian from the WP won the single seat with 54.52 per cent of votes, while the PAP’s Dr Koh Poh Koon garnered 43.73 per cent.

The Reform Party’s Kenneth Jeyaretnam and Singapore Democratic Alliance’s Desmond Lim raked in 1.2 and 0.57 per cent, respectively, and both lost their election deposits.

National University of Singapore (NUS) sociologist Tan Ern Ser said the prospect of multi-cornered fights means opposition parties have to work harder. “They would have to try hard to differentiate themselves from one another, such as with more well-thought-out criticism of the ruling party and better ideas, better programmes that resonate with voters. Maybe even better candidates.”

NUS political science associate professor Bilveer Singh suggested that fighting in single-member constituencies would be “more economical” for opposition parties, especially “the new ones that have no ground record”.

CROSSOVER OF CANDIDATES

An issue that may muddy the parties’ claims to contest for various seats is the crossover of candidates between parties since the last GE.

For instance, Ms Jeannette Chong-Aruldoss, who contested for the Mountbatten seat in the last election as part of the NSP, has announced her intention to fight for the same seat again, now under the Singapore People’s Party umbrella. She left the NSP earlier this year.

“Many a time, they move because of bad blood, unhappiness. So, that makes the ability to make concessions, to give and take, somewhat more challenging,” said SMU’s Assoc Prof Tan.

“We do not know if the trust and confidence among the opposition parties is strong enough for them to come up with a deal, where everyone would feel they have not been shortchanged.”

Source: www.channelnewsasia.com

July 27, 2015