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Tag: WP

  • Walid J. Abdullah: Multi-Cornered Fight Is Good, Vote-Splitting Will be Rare

    Walid J. Abdullah: Multi-Cornered Fight Is Good, Vote-Splitting Will be Rare

    Some people have expressed their fears of multi-cornered fights in the upcoming GE (they are mostly either opposition supporters or people who want the PAP to be in government but wish to see more opposition voices in Parliament). I do not share their fears and have more faith in Singaporeans in this regard: not because i believe that all Singaporeans are politically astute in all aspects, but because there have been evidence to suggest that Singaporeans have learnt the potential effects of multi-cornered fights.

    In the 2011 Presidential Election, Singaporeans were divided between three candidates: eventually, Dr Tony Tan won the election with the tiniest of margins. A substantial amount of people who voted for Tan Jee Say (25%) must have regretted their choice, as had they casted their votes for Dr Tan Cheng Bock (who would be the natural next option: one cannot imagine a person who voted for TJS preferring Tony Tan over TCB), TCB would have been the president.

    Fast forward to 2013: Punggol East by-election. There were two things that did not receive sufficient attention in the aftermath of the sensational electoral outcome: 1) the disastrous performances of Desmond Lim and Kenneth Jeyaretnam (Desmond’s one is particularly important), and 2) SDP was completely ignored by WP when the former attempted to devise creative plans to mount a ‘unified’opposition to PAP.

    In the 2011 GE, Desmond contested the Punggol East constituency against PAP and WP candidates. He received 4.45% of the votes. In 2013, he attained just 0.57% of the vote share. While both results were atrocious, the second one was particularly so. I argue that Singaporeans had learnt from the Presidential Elections that every vote truly mattered in a multi-cornered contest, and hence were less likely to waste their votes on candidates who had no serious chance of winning (in the first place, a significant portion of the 4.45% he received in 2011 could have been purely out of sympathy, and when the going gets tough, there really is less room for sympathy or other considerations). The fact that SDP withdrew very early on, suggests that its leaders probably believed this from the start too.

    In Political Science literature, the above phenomenon is known as the ‘psychological effect’ in voting, and was made popular by Duverger. I believe we have seen the psychological effect occurring in Singapore, and that we will see more of it if there are more multi-cornered fights.

    Hence, I contend that the following will be likely to happen:

    In the constituencies that WP is contesting, the other opposition parties who decide to contest will not get their deposits back. In fact, I do not expect them to get more than 3% of the votes. This is regardless of which are the other parties.

    In the constituencies that WP is not contesting but there are multi-cornered contests, it depends on which parties are contesting. If SDP and NSP contest, then maybe the votes would be significantly split: this is because both are parties of similar stature, and opposition supporters may be divided as to which would be the party that would get more votes.

    In the constituencies that WP is not contesting, and only either SDP or NSP is contesting with the other smaller parties, one can expect the other parties to not get their deposits back.

    So perhaps the opposition parties should take heed from lessons of the 2011 Presidential Elections and 2013 Punggol-East By-Election: be prepared to lose your money in the multi-cornered fights, because vote-splitting between the opposition parties will be rare.

    In any case, Singaporeans should not be overly-worried about having more parties in electoral contests: such a situation is ultimately good in enhancing democracy.

     

    Source: Walid J. Abdullah

  • Atan Flybaits: MP Melayu PAP Pak Turut, Takut Mengetengahkan Isu-Isu Melayu

    Atan Flybaits: MP Melayu PAP Pak Turut, Takut Mengetengahkan Isu-Isu Melayu

    Kita sering menyangka bahawa calun calun PAP terdiri dari orang orang yg berkaliber tapi itu tak betul

    Di pertemuan yg di anjurkan oleh encik Faisal Manap tidak lama dulu iaitu pertemuan dgn aktivis Melayu, Encik Faisal memberitahu kami satu ketika beliau cuba membangkit kan isu isu Melayu di parlimen.

    MP Melayu PAP telah menerang beliau dgn kata kata ‘ are you trying to politicised malay issues ‘, jadi agak sulit untuk beliau bersuara

    Di sini kita lihat kebodohan MP MP Melayu PAP – parlimen adalah the hse of politik kalau ahli politik tak boleh mempolitik kan isu di dalam hse of politik maka di mana kah mereka nak berbicara tentang politik ?

    Secara logic kita lihat kebodohan MP MP melayu PAP sangat jelas atau PAP sengaja memilih mereka kerena kebodohan mereka yang boleh di jadi kan ‘Yes man’

     

    Source: Atan Flybaits in Suara Melayu Islam Singapura

  • Analysts: Multi-Cornered Fights Unlikely

    Analysts: Multi-Cornered Fights Unlikely

    Although several opposition parties have staked their claims to the same constituencies, the political analysts TODAY spoke to said multi-cornered fights are likely to prevail only in constituencies the Workers’ Party (WP) does not gun for. Multi-cornered fights, they said, hold “grave consequences” for other opposition parties that do not have a branding as strong as the WP’s.

    Singapore Management University law don, associate professor Eugene Tan, said the WP is in a “healthy bargaining position”, and unlikely to concede the places it staked a claim to.

    “In a case where there is nothing much to differentiate between the two or more opposition parties, voters may not know where or on whom to pool their votes. And this is where we are likely to see votes being split,” he said.

    WP secretary-general Low Thia Khiang on Sunday (Jul 26) announced his party’s intention to contest in Marine Parade GRC and MacPherson SMC — the former being a ward contested by the National Solidarity Party (NSP) in the 2011 polls and the latter, a part of it until electoral boundaries were redrawn last Friday.

    The NSP has called for a meeting this Friday among opposition parties to hammer out deals and avoid multi-way fights.

    MULTI-CORNERED FIGHTS MORE LIKELY IN WEST, CENTRAL PARTS

    With the WP’s plans to expand eastwards, Assoc Prof Tan and former Nominated Member of Parliament Siew Kum Hong felt multi-cornered fights are more likely to happen in the western and central parts of Singapore. Said Mr Siew: “I think most other opposition parties will be hesitant to challenge the WP.”

    Added political analyst Derek da Cunha: “The other opposition parties have yet to concretely demonstrate that they are on the same level as the WP in terms of voter appeal.”

    The analysts also cited the Punggol East by-election in 2013 as an example of why opposition camps should avoid multi-cornered fights that involve the WP. Ms Lee Li Lian from the WP won the single seat with 54.52 per cent of votes, while the PAP’s Dr Koh Poh Koon garnered 43.73 per cent.

    The Reform Party’s Kenneth Jeyaretnam and Singapore Democratic Alliance’s Desmond Lim raked in 1.2 and 0.57 per cent, respectively, and both lost their election deposits.

    National University of Singapore (NUS) sociologist Tan Ern Ser said the prospect of multi-cornered fights means opposition parties have to work harder. “They would have to try hard to differentiate themselves from one another, such as with more well-thought-out criticism of the ruling party and better ideas, better programmes that resonate with voters. Maybe even better candidates.”

    NUS political science associate professor Bilveer Singh suggested that fighting in single-member constituencies would be “more economical” for opposition parties, especially “the new ones that have no ground record”.

    CROSSOVER OF CANDIDATES

    An issue that may muddy the parties’ claims to contest for various seats is the crossover of candidates between parties since the last GE.

    For instance, Ms Jeannette Chong-Aruldoss, who contested for the Mountbatten seat in the last election as part of the NSP, has announced her intention to fight for the same seat again, now under the Singapore People’s Party umbrella. She left the NSP earlier this year.

    “Many a time, they move because of bad blood, unhappiness. So, that makes the ability to make concessions, to give and take, somewhat more challenging,” said SMU’s Assoc Prof Tan.

    “We do not know if the trust and confidence among the opposition parties is strong enough for them to come up with a deal, where everyone would feel they have not been shortchanged.”

     

    Source: www.channelnewsasia.com

  • Marine Parade Likely The First GRC To Go To Opposition

    Marine Parade Likely The First GRC To Go To Opposition

    The redrawing of electoral boundaries makes Marine Parade a ward with the most changes, with a cut and a paste. Presumably the changes are meant to favour the PAP in Marine Parade. The weakest link in the team, Tin Pei Ling, has been hived out to front a single seat in MacPherson. Many political observers see her as a liability and her absence in a way should strengthen Marine Parade some what. But this is off set by the inclusion of Joo Chiat. The marginal win at Joo Chiat must be scary for the PAP and it must be hoping to retain Joo Chiat by making it part of the firmer Marine Parade GRC. How would this work out is yet to be seen as the voters in Joo Chiat seem to be swinging towards the WP camp.

    The incumbents in Marine Parade are no guarantees for a win. Chok Tong, the strongest candidate due to his Premiership status is likely to be retired. Tan Chuan Jin has not much to show during his term in MOM and would not be the persuasive factor to carry Marine Parade. The rest of the team are just so so.

    Now comes the checkmate move by Low Thai Khiang. He has announced that WP would contest Marine Parade. Low Thia Khiang has a very good track record in winning elections. He broke ground by winning Hougang. Again he broke the records by winning a GRC, once seen as near impossibility. For Low Thia Khiang to make his move in Marine Parade and East Coast, he must have read his cards well. He must have sense the moment has come.

    PAP’s performance against NSP in the last election was nothing to crow about. NSP was a very weak team and the Nicole Seah effect was enough to rattle the PAP team and nearly knocked them over. The WP is no NSP, and has a more respectable track record and seen as a real challenger to the PAP in times to come. A so so team in Marine Parade is going to be a tough call and the chances of it falling to the WP is quite expectable. Would the PAP boost up the team with more ministers and take a big gamble to lose big?

    Just a few days after the electoral boundaries have been changed and confirmed, and with some comments and indications of intent from the opposition parties, Marine Parade is now hanging by a very thin thread. And the bonus that could come along would be MacPherson. If top notch candidates like Dr Koh Poh Soon can lose to Ah Lian, Tin Pei Ling would need to a miraculous act to stand a chance against an opposition candidate on her own. Very likely she would be retired on medical ground from this GE.

    It is looking like 1 GRC and 1 SMC down before the GE even started. My God, if this is the case, Tan Chuan Jin would be no more a minister.


    Source: http://mysingaporenews.blogspot.com.au

     

  • WP’s Lee Li Lian To Continue To Serve In Punggol East SMC

    WP’s Lee Li Lian To Continue To Serve In Punggol East SMC

    Member of Parliament (MP) for Punggol East Lee Li Lian has said she will continue to serve her residents in the Punggol East Single Member Constituency, in response to queries from Channel NewsAsia following the release of the Electoral Boundaries Review Committee report yesterday (July 24).

    She also said that addressing the residents’ concerns is her top priority. Ms Lee was speaking after a tea session with her residents, saying that she was not really shocked at the boundary changes.

    According to the report, the opposition wards including Punggol East were left untouched. Ms Lee also said the Workers’ Party is currently studying the report carefully before making any statements.

    Ms Lee won the Punggol East by-election in 2013 with 54.5 per cent of the vote against People’s Action Party candidate, Dr Koh Poh Koon.

     

    Source: www.channelnewsasia.com